Therefore, we must remove them from the equation to isolate the effects different ballparks have on balls in play. To be sure, ballparks will have no impact on any of those outcomes. The denominator also includes strikeouts. That park would be a good place to pitch.Īs noted above, wOBA includes walks and hit by pitches. For example, where xwOBA exceeds wOBA in a given venue, the park is curbing offensive output because expected run expectancy (sorry for the redundancy) is greater than the value of actual run expectancy in the park. With that background, we can use wOBA and xwOBA to evaluate how various ballparks influence outcomes. All the combinations of launch angle and exit velocity (with some including sprint speed) are assigned a probability of becoming a single, double, triple, or home run, and then plugged into the wOBA formula. Unlike wOBA, the inputs for xwOBA include only exit velocity, launch angle and, on topped and weakly hit balls, sprint speed, as opposed to actual results like singles or walks. Don’t worry, we’ll be adding even more letters shortly. Now that you understand wOBA, consider expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) from Statcast. As a measure of overall offensive value, wOBA is better than OPS, which undervalues getting on base relative to slugging. Then, divide that total by the hitter’s at-bats, unintentional walks, hit by pitches, and sacrifice flies. Basically, calculating wOBA requires tallying up a hitter’s walks, hit by pitches, singles, doubles, triples, and home runs, and then weighting each by the value it has in proportion to its propensity to create runs (run expectancy).
Tom Tango’s wOBA attempts to assign a final numerical value to a hitter’s overall offense. Let’s begin with weighted on-base average (wOBA). I’m going to give a short primer because it’s necessary for understanding the park factors I’ll derive. Maybe you’ve heard of wOBA and xwOBA, but aren’t sure how they operate.
Isolating those park effects is the premise of this article. Of course, pitchers are affected by more than just the park’s impact on home run hitting–if a park is more conducive to singles, double, or triples, that will negatively impact a pitcher, and vice versa. Something that shows the net run-scoring envirnoment of each ballpark. And I wanted something useful for pitchers, too. But beyond home runs, they are lacking in applicability. I personally use those park factors for evaluating the home run hitting potential of hitters who have changed teams this offseason. Then, I updated those park factors, expanding the sample back to 2017 with an interactive chart that also accounts for the handedness of the hitter. In other words, I determined, when hitters barrel the ball, in which stadiums those barrels were more or less likely to result in home runs. First, I examined how ballparks influenced the barrel-to-home-run conversion rate in 2019. Having alluded to my prior articles, let me give you necessary background.
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